Uh-Oh: FiveThirtyEight Favors Dems To Hold Senate

New Modeling Shows Dems With 65% Chances Of Winning The Senate
Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer

At a glance

  • FiveThirtyEight’s modeling suggests. Democrats have a 65% chance of maintaining their 50-seat Senate caucus, which effectively is a majority because the VP is the tie-breaking vote.
  • That’s a 15-point increase in Democrats’ chances in less than a month – a fact FiveThirtyEight attributes to weak GOP candidates in some states.
  • The good news for Republicans is that Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson is favored to win a close race and Marco Rubio has an 85% chance of winning reelection.

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