Former President Trump maintains his lead in a key battleground state in the 2024 presidential election, according to a new poll.
A survey published Tuesday by the AARP finds Trump with a 3-percentage point lead over President Biden in Nevada. Trump is favored by 48% of likely Silver State voters, compared to 45% who said they would vote for Biden if the election were held today.
That narrow lead extends to a more comfortable 7 points if independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is included. Kennedy has not yet qualified for the Nevada ballot and state Democrats have filed a lawsuit that challenges his eligibility.
Trump’s lead is more pronounced among voters over 50, who said they prefer the presumptive Republican nominee to Biden, a Democrat, by double digits (53%-41%). The silver lining for Biden is that he maintains a lead among Hispanic voters in that age demographic, 51% to Trump’s 41%, according to the AARP poll.
“We have a huge Hispanic population, so that vote will matter,” said Maria Moore, AARP Nevada state director. Hispanics make up 22% of the eligible voter population in Nevada, according to a 2022 Pew Research Center analysis cited in the AARP’s news release.
Nevada is one of several closely watched states that could very well determine who holds the White House next year. The battleground state has not gone for a Republican presidential candidate since 2004, when President George W. Bush ran for re-election. But Biden only won the state narrowly in 2020, with 50.06% of the vote to Trump’s 47.67% vote share.
