Famed pollster and statistician Nate Silver has released his first 2024 presidential election forecast, and boy, Democrats aren’t going to be happy about it. Silver is no stranger to election modeling, as you probably know, and his first 2024 election forecast, which was published on Wednesday, gives Donald Trump a nearly 66% chance of winning the election.
Based on his simulations, he currently gives Trump a 65.7% of winning the Electoral College and a 49% chance of winning the popular vote.
Cue the wails from the radical left. The tears and angry fists are definitely out in full force on social media.
Silver, of course, was prepared for the angry screams from the left for not telling them what they wanted to hear. “Although I have plenty of disagreements with progressives these days, my political values haven’t changed that much,” he says. “I don’t want Trump to win the election, and I’d never consider voting for him.”
But, he points out it’s not his job to tell his liberal readers what they want to hear but to be intellectually honest about what the data tells him.
“I began making election forecasts in 2008, and in literally every presidential year since then, I haven’t really had to deal with a conflict between what I personally wanted to see happen and what my forecast said. This year, I do have that conflict. The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden).”
