Get Ready For A ‘Slowcession’ In 2023, Moody’s Says

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At a glance

  • Many CEOs, investors and consumers are worried about a recession in 2023. But Moody’s Analytics says the more likely scenario is a “slowcession,” where growth grinds to a near halt but a full economic downturn is narrowly avoided.
  • “Under almost any scenario, the economy is set to have a difficult 2023,” Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi wrote in a report on Tuesday. “But inflation is quickly moderating, and the economy’s fundamentals are sound. With a bit of luck and some reasonably deft policymaking by the Fed, the economy should avoid an outright downturn.”
  • Moody’s said in a slowcession — a phrase coined by Zandi’s colleague Cristian deRitis — economic growth “comes to a near standstill but never slips into reverse.” Unemployment would rise, but not spike.

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